The investment community has some wonderful writers and thinkers like Warren Buffett and Bill Gross. But my nomination for the best political thinking goes to the folks at Bedlam Asset Management. Their outstanding essay can be found under "pick of the week" at their website, bedlamplc.com.
The writers argue that Iran is well-positioned to take advantage of a structural vacuum. Aided by a keen sense of history, they argue persuasively that Persia will rise again and be the leader of the Muslim world. Our movements to topple Saddam Hussein have simply hastened the process of making Iraq a vassal Shiite state. Not what the U.S. has fought for, but it might create a more stable Muslim world.
The negatives? Clearly, the primary impact is on Israel. The recent letter from the president of Iran essentially said to President Bush: "Leave us alone and we'll leave you alone, but let us deal with 'the phenomenon' of Israel." Assuming that terrorist threats subside in the U.S. and that Iraq moves to a Shiite state, then I can imagine U.S. citizens retreating to a focus on domestic issues, such as the housing bubble.
The lesson: forget Iraq, keep your eyes on Iran.
In looking for an update, I discovered that Bedlam was forced to shut down because an institutional consultant issued a sell because the CIO moved to another fund. As a result, the CEO Jonathan Compton shuttered the fund due to rapid and forced institutional withdrawals - after outstanding performance. However, he continues to write articles which can be found by searching for his name and "Bedlam." Still an independent thinker.
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