When looking at these pictures, I had the same question when listening to Florida real estate stories three years ago - How is this possible? In the case of Dubai, I assumed it was simply oil rich folks with no respect for money. But an article in last Monday's WSJ shows it was also borrowed money. Here is a graph of the regional stock market's performance:
Here I'll disclose my U.S.-centric mentality. First, I didn't know they had stock markets in each of these regions - I just figured they owned big pieces of everyone else's. Second, I had no idea where Bahrain (island east of Saudi Arabia), Qatar (thumb sticking out into Gulf) and Oman (southeastern corner of Arabian peninsula) were.
Despite massive oil revenues, the governments are dependent on high prices. The WSJ reports, "Gulf states, on average, need prices above $47 a barrel to keep from running budget deficits. But some states are more vulnerable than others: Bahrain's so-called break-even price is $75 a barrel, compared with Saudi Arabia's $49 and Kuwait's $33, according to the International Monetary Fund."
These governments are now propping up the banks which are highly connected to what seems a Florida-like property flip. Compounding the problem is that the government itself owns nearly 50% of the developers, making it hard to say no. In a sign of the times it is reported that Dubai property prices rose 16% in the second quarter. That was much slower than the 42% price reported in the first quarter.
Look out below.
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